Trevor Fisher says No: It’s Labour or the Fourth Republic

Before the 2010 election, there was some discussion in the Chartist collective on whether Britain was taking the same route as the Weimar Republic in the twenties. The Blair-Brown years had seen the rise of the Far Right with street fighters like the EDL emerging and a serious electoral challenge from the BNP. Its leader Nick Griffin became an MEP and with the BNP winning council seats, the risk of a British Front Nationale succeeding was real.

Five years later the good news is the Fascist Right is retreating though not defeated. The bad news is it has been replaced by UKIP, and while this has split the Tory right, xenophobia also appeals to Labour voters.  In Scotland, the Nationalists threaten to deny Labour the seats it needs for government. Electorally the Lib Dems are taking a hammering across the UK and the Greens are providing an appeal for progressive Labour voters. With 7 parties in the TV debates, the election is beyond quick fixes. If Britain today looks less like Weimar before the Nazis, it increasingly looks like the French Fourth Republic – a Poujadist Party in UKIP, fragmentation and a future of coalition governments and instability.

Immediately there is an overwhelming case for a Tactical Voting campaign to stop the Green surge taking Labour seats. The threat of Farage in government should concentrate minds. A UKIP-Tory coalition could be the election outcome, with Cameron is ousted as Tory leader for a pro-UKIP leader. An alternative scenario, if Miliband does badly, is a threat to his position and a Grand Coalition of Tory and Labour for the still sizeable number of pro-European Tories. For Balls the chance to become Chancellor in a Grand Coalition, backed by the Blairite M Ps, cannot be underestimated. It is possibly the only way to save a career blighted by his embrace of austerity. A pro -Austerity, pro- Europe coalition would have appeal to the Orange Book Lib Dems, though whether Clegg holds his seat is problematical. If he loses and the Liberals split, then a Labour-Left Liberal alliance is possible. The Oakshott grant to the Labour-Liberal candidates he favours is a big straw in the wind,

The Greens would probably not win enough seats to hold a balance, but could stop Labour victories, while the SNP is a real beast in this jungle. As the Nats have picked up the social democratic/pro welfare state cloak that New Labour threw away, it would have an appeal to many Labour voters. It’s a poisoned chalice however, and in Scotland Labour supporters might prefer an alliance with Left Lib Dems. With no major party having a clear alternative to policies of fiscal orthodoxy, austerity and more cuts save the fringe parties, the possibility of unstable short term coalitions would be considerable - just like the French Fourth Republic – making a Grand Coalition more attractive, but hard to achieve, hence the French Fourth Republic could be the reality and if fixed parliaments are kept, changes might happen without any electoral mandate at all.

While YouGov polling at the end of January suggests support for radical policies amongst Labour and Swing voters, the message will be blanked by Labour. John Reid's comment on the Left Futures website to the news -”We tried this in 1983 and it failed” - shows the anachronism of New Labour. However Blairites remain in action, actively hostile to even Miliband's limited gestures.

In the last month both Blair himself and Alan Milburn have attacked Miliband, to the applause of the Tory press. It is possible a Miliband defeat would put them back on the political stage. Labour is internally divided and has spent the coalition period being studiously vague. It is unlikely this will change as Labour fears a 1992 repeat, though this is not 1992 and with the Greens attracting young Leftish voters, its present course is risky.

The immediate priority is to secure a Miliband premiership via tactical voting. This would also lay the basis for an Anti Austerity Alliance. While the People's Assembly is marginal. It could be strengthened by a strong tactical voting network for May 8^th. In the immediate post-election period, repealing the fixed parliament Act would be an essential first step. A coalition may be the outcome if there is no majority, but not for another 5 years. It has to be brought to an end when circumstances change, for another election to seek a majority. Otherwise we really will have the French Fourth Republic in the UK, with disastrous consequences.

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